Trade Analysis and Tips for Trading the Japanese Yen

There were no tests of the designated levels in the first half of the day, so I stayed out of the market.

In the second half of the day, there are no major U.S. economic releases, so instead of closely monitoring general economic indicators, it is advisable to focus on more specific aspects, such as the United States' foreign trade strategy. It is quite likely that comments from Donald Trump or representatives of the presidential administration regarding tariffs will impact the dollar's exchange rate. Therefore, analyzing such remarks could be more productive. Discussions of trade wars often lead to instability in the currency markets. Investors closely monitor any signs of increased protectionist measures, as these could harm the global economy and, consequently, reduce interest in the dollar while supporting the Japanese yen, which has recently been benefiting from such developments.

It is important to pay attention not only to official statements but also to subtle hints. For instance, Trump's Twitter posts, discussions with trade representatives, and any unofficial information leaked to the media may provide insights into future U.S. policy.

As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on the implementation of Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today upon reaching the entry point around 143.58 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise toward 144.44 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 144.44, I will exit purchases and open short positions (anticipating a 30–35 point move downward from the level). Buying the pair today will only be reasonable following soft statements from Trump. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in case of two consecutive tests of the 143.21 price level, at a time when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This would limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a market reversal upwards. Growth towards the opposite levels of 143.58 and 144.44 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today after updating the 143.21 level (red line on the chart), which will lead to a quick drop in the pair. Sellers' key target will be the 142.38 level, where I will exit sales and open long positions (anticipating a 20–25 point move upward from the level). Pressure on the pair may occur at any moment today. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in case of two consecutive tests of the 143.58 price level, at a time when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This would limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. A decline towards the opposite levels of 143.21 and 142.38 can be expected.

What's on the Chart:

• Thin green line – the entry price where you can buy the trading instrument;
• Thicker green line – the suggested price where you can place Take Profit orders or manually secure profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – the entry price where you can sell the trading instrument;
• Thicker red line – the suggested price where you can place Take Profit orders or manually secure profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD Indicator – when entering the market, it is important to be guided by the overbought and oversold zones.

Important

Beginner traders in the Forex market must be very cautious when making entry decisions. Before the release of important fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. Without setting stop-losses, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not practice money management and trade large volumes.

And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one outlined above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is a losing strategy for an intraday trader.